Russia and China holding joint military exercises

[Killfile]

Cross-post from my blog - thought you guys might want to discuss.

China and Russia are engaging in a series of War Games which are ostensibly to train their militaries in counter-terrorism. Of course, the utility of strategic bombers and missile submarines is fairly limited in the world of counter terror operations – so there’s clearly another agenda at work here.

Far more likely is that China and Russia are trying to bridge the gap from the Sino-Soviet split back in the 1960s. Russia’s showcasing of their Tupolov TU-16/ Badger strategic bombers is of particular note, given that the Russians haven’t sold or given the Chinese a heavy bomber since the 1950s.

While cooperation and international harmony is something of a good thing, the beginnings of an Asiatic alliance between Russia and China is something the West (the US and the EU) should be seriously worried about.

China’s population is huge and getting huger. As its economy ramps up, China is demanding more and more natural resources to feed its emerging consumer markets. China is resource poor, and thus imports many of its raw materials from the outside world. An alliance with Russia is worrisome as it may secure for China preferential treatment when it comes to Siberia.

Siberia represents some two-thirds of the surface area of Russia, and is only slightly smaller than Canada. It is sparsely populated and largely still untamed wilderness. Beneath it are thought to lie some of the largest expanses of natural resources in the world. Siberia is known to contain vast stores of gold, diamonds, manganese, lead, zinc, nickel, cobalt, and molybdenum (thanks Wikipedia) and thought to contain oil, uranium, and other essential resources.

As the Twenty-First century’s oil crisis looms, access to the resource fields of Siberia is likely to become a major strategic sticking point in global politics.

Russia’s status as both a European and Asian power makes this doubly contentious. While Siberia is quite clearly an Asian landmass, as long as access to it is controlled by Russia its status remains in doubt. Russia has long sought status as a full fledged European power – an ambition dating back centuries. Today Russia plays both sides of the fence, participating in NATO exercises while at the same time courting Chinese alliances in the East.

Like it or not – the US and the EU need Russia and will need her more in the coming years. It would be wise to extend the olive branch sooner rather than later, both in the for peace and in our own economic interests.

[TheDarkness]

not much room for discussion here.... 'cept for the fact that the need of oil is of lesser importance then the other resources that were named... The stockpiles of oil are remarkebly large even those in western hands. Plus we already have several things that could (at the moment partially but in the future completely) make oil unimportant.

[Skullkracker]

hmmm, not much discussion here

well...ermmm...good for them
not the first time they do that I guess

[Killfile]

not the first time they do that I guess

It's the first time in a VERY long time. Mao (China's first communist leader) was a follower of Joseph Stalin, at least ideologically. The two got a long well, and by some accounts were close personal friends.

When Stalin died, he was succeeded by Nikita Sergiovitch Khrushchev, who, in a series of power struggles, managed to distance himself from the more oppressive and hard line policies of the Stalinist era in what became known as the "Secret Speeches."

Khrushchev's rejection of Stalin angered Mao, and the Chinese and Soviet governments drifted apart in the early 1960s, a division known as the Sino-Soviet Split.

The closest the two powers came to joint exercises between then and now was an armed border dispute and only narrowly avoided going nuclear.

Reconciliation of these two latent superpowers represents a realignment of world power against the United States. While militarily we don't have a lot to fear from Russia and China, economically they have the capability to crush us.

That's what makes this new and different.

[Skullkracker]

economically they have the capability to crush us.

Russia has it's problems, but China has enormous potential

I knew most of those (unfortunately), but nice of you to share it. I wish I could just pull it out of my sleeve too just like that...

[Killfile]

Russia has it's problems, but China has enormous potential

But China doesn't have the raw materials to do that. So long as China relies on foreign imports, her economy will always be in the stranglehold of Western trade policies.

That's where Russia comes in. Land based trade across the Chinese Russian border along with Chinese help extracting Siberian resources changes the economic balance of power considerably.

[Skullkracker]

hmmmm, good point

edit: BUT, China has a huuuge consumer market too yummy to miss

[Southpaw]

I wouldn't be to hasty to write China off as an insignificant military threat. The
PLA has done a lot to improve its military capabilities to a standard even the U.S. has to take notice of. Even if they don't have the capability to project power very far they are working towards that goal and should achieve it in the near future. I see them trying to forcibly reunite themselves with Taiwan in the near future and that bodes ill for the United States as we have given our word to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan.

See this for more details: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... 9china.pdf

As far as the resources go I am not to worried. I doubt the Russia will let China have much of it's Siberian resources. Russia sees China more as a large market for it's struggling arms industry.

[TheDarkness]

why is it that when a country increases it's militairy power the first thing that is said is that the U.S. has to take notice of it.... it's not like the whole friggin world wants to start a war against america....

[Killfile]

why is it that when a country increases it's military power the first thing that is said is that the U.S. has to take notice of it.... it's not like the whole frigging world wants to start a war against america....

Well actually.....


But seriously, the reason is that, since the fall of the Soviet Union the international system has been Uni-Polar, meaning that there is really only one superpower. The United States.

That system tends to be unstable, with rising superpowers challenging the existing one for dominance. Because of that, the US is in a "king of the hill" position -- where every rising power is also a rising threat.

It's also worth pointing out that we're talking about China and Russia here -- not Canada and France. The US does not have an exactly friendly history with those two countries.

[TheDarkness]

yeah but still i don't think it correct to look at them as if they might invade america any moment... Ok so they might be increasing hteir army.... so what. An army has more then 1 purpose. Believe me... In holland the "war-part" is the least of all the jobs the militairy has.

[Southpaw]

I never said they would invade America. In fact they are quite incapable of doing so. However China has publicly stated it would not rule out use of force in reintegrating Taiwan. So when I see China building up its amphibious forces, improving it's air force to higher standards and generally bringing its forces closer to western standards, I smell the possibility of them invading Taiwan. That would drag us into a conflict. That constitutes a threat from my point of view.

[Killfile]

yeah but still i don't think it correct to look at them as if they might invade America any moment... Ok so they might be increasing their army.... so what. An army has more then 1 purpose. Believe me... In Holland the "war-part" is the least of all the jobs the military has.

It's a great deal more complex than that. There are certain perks that come with having the biggest baddest military in the world. Those perks are bigger and nicer when no one else even comes close.

The ability to bully a few dozen countries into "helping" you knock over an oil rich dictator in the Mid East is one such perk.

Holland, or any European country is a pretty bad example. Europe has some very interesting ideas about the role of the military dating to 1944, for reasons that I will leave as an exercise to the reader.

The US is used to policing the world (we've been doing that since 1991) and the western world since 1945. Because of US policing, there are certain things that we take for granted - things that benefit Europe and other western powers.

Were China or Russia to eclipse the US as a major power you might see a major shift in the general political climate of the international system. Certainly a great deal less interest in Europe as a major force in economics.

Moreover, war between superpowers in the 20th and 21st century isn't about invasion anymore. Sure, armed with pitchforks the population of China could realistically take over the world. Fortunately, there isn't an overabundance of pitchforks in China. More to the point, China's military has better ways of exerting its will, both directly and indirectly, upon the western world.

As economic winds shift, those means will become more diverse, and the significance of the European-American dominated culture of the international system, the foundation upon which the last 500 years of world history have been built, will crumble.

[Devil_Dante]

Can't we all just get along?!?!

[Southpaw]

No, no we can't.

[krymsonsith]

What, you think you're some kind of Russian expert? Idiot! There are people who are actually study this stuff so you don't have to. Sheesh.

[Southpaw]

Yeah and I am pretty sure Killfile is one of them.

[Devil_Dante]

Why the bad mood man?

[Southpaw]

I'm sorry, I was going for sarcasm at you homie. Sorry it didn't get through.

[Devil_Dante]

You mean sith dude or me?
Cuz I meant sith dude

[Southpaw]

Well seeing as we are both sith dudes could you be more specific?

[Devil_Dante]

Not that you mention it ... The redheaded sith dude. I meant the red headed sith dude. lol

[Southpaw]

Awesome, I am glad we got that all sorted out.

Now I hope I didn't just kill this thread.

[TheDarkness]

yeah but still i don't think it correct to look at them as if they might invade America any moment... Ok so they might be increasing their army.... so what. An army has more then 1 purpose. Believe me... In Holland the "war-part" is the least of all the jobs the military has.

It's a great deal more complex than that. There are certain perks that come with having the biggest baddest military in the world. Those perks are bigger and nicer when no one else even comes close.

The ability to bully a few dozen countries into "helping" you knock over an oil rich dictator in the Mid East is one such perk.

Holland, or any European country is a pretty bad example. Europe has some very interesting ideas about the role of the military dating to 1944, for reasons that I will leave as an exercise to the reader.

The US is used to policing the world (we've been doing that since 1991) and the western world since 1945. Because of US policing, there are certain things that we take for granted - things that benefit Europe and other western powers.

Were China or Russia to eclipse the US as a major power you might see a major shift in the general political climate of the international system. Certainly a great deal less interest in Europe as a major force in economics.

Moreover, war between superpowers in the 20th and 21st century isn't about invasion anymore. Sure, armed with pitchforks the population of China could realistically take over the world. Fortunately, there isn't an overabundance of pitchforks in China. More to the point, China's military has better ways of exerting its will, both directly and indirectly, upon the western world.

As economic winds shift, those means will become more diverse, and the significance of the European-American dominated culture of the international system, the foundation upon which the last 500 years of world history have been built, will crumble.

if either of these countries would want to start a war they will need more then just the resources that they have themselves. An embargo would make the chance of an all out war smaller. And still i don't hink that the next big war will be fought with normal weapons for which you need huge army's. It will probably involve countries pushing a button to launch a missile (ok that might be overly simplefied but in essence that is what i think it will come down to).

and for that krymson guy... take it easy man... you ain't an expert yourself so unless you can prove anything he said wrong just STFU

[Loeviz]

I like it that Killfile make threads like this one, not that I participate in the arguments at given time (But trust me, I will come with something sometime ).
Nice to get someones thought´s about what is currently on the go in the world